RiescoRiescodemand & production
  • Overviewnext days vs norm
  • Demanda year of portions
  • Productionzones and dishes
  • Kitchen maplines, zones, portion sizes
  • Disheswhat a zone makes, day by day
  • Growthhow a day fills up
  • Normseach site against its weekday
  • Forecastexpected finals, and how right
  • Portion predictionnext week, line by line
  • Trendswhat is changing
  • Collectioncoverage and runs
  • Daily report generatordownload a day, build the workbook
  • Referencemeals, sites, zones, lines
  • Settingswhen the data is collected
PRANDIUM data

Portion prediction

Next week, day by day: every order line already booked for it gets a predicted number of portions, from that site's own history of the dish at that meal. Pick a day to see its lines and download it.

Next week: Mon 5 Oct → Sun 11 Oct
The order lines already booked for each day of next week, from that day's newest read. Predicting fills in a number of portions on every one of them; a line booked afterwards is not in it.
Recent predictions
Who predicted which week, and when. Select a row to open it again.
A prediction's workbook is deleted after a month; its lines stay in the log, where they are graded.
How right it has been
Every prediction with settled days, graded against what was served, as dish × day WAPE.
Model: the lines it was given. Customers: the same, customer sites only. Plan: everything that was served, lines booked after the prediction included. Bias is predicted against served, so +3% ran high. Booked floor is the model's error had no line been predicted below what it had already booked. Book held is the share of what was served that sat on lines already booked.
Error by horizon
Dish × day WAPE by how many days ahead the prediction was made, measured on the real order books of past weeks.
From the forward backtest: the history rebuilt as it stood the day before each print, predicting the lines that print held.
Model and history
The history state the predictions stand on, the trees it was built for, the latest jobs, and the days the history gate left out.
The history refreshes by itself every service day at 10:30 and then grades what has settled. The trees are retrained each quarter and replace the active ones only when they do no worse on the last six complete weeks.